Post by Chris on Dec 15, 2010 20:14:59 GMT -8
The Pacific Ocean is currently in a cold phase, or La Nina pattern. Yes, I know last year we were all talking about El Nino (warm water) but by mid-spring it became pretty evident that the cycle had ended and conditions were changing quite rapidly. That, coupled with a persistent NW wind and resulting upwelling along the coast, held water temperatures down for most of the summer season.
Personally, I think that really played havoc with the migration routes and feeding habits of the migratory tuna that visit our waters each spring, summer and fall. My thought is that if you totally mess up the water structure (thermocline, temperature breaks) then that will likely have an impact on the rest of the ecosystem. That could be why our offshore season was so unreliable and even when we did find a large volume of fish they were skittish and didn't seem interested in trolled jigs or sardines.
At any rate, this "cold phase ENSO" as it is called is expected to persist through the spring 2011. Not to worry! We have still experienced fantastic offshore fishing during La Nina! From previous episodes of similar strength we can draw conclusions about the impact on west coast weather, such as Southern California and Northern Baja tend to be drier and warmer compared to the long-term average. That doesn't mean we won't see any rain this winter, but there is a better chance that rainfall will come up short of the long-term average.
As for the impact on our fishery...the cold water anomoly is measured along the equator and doesn't necessarily have a direct correlation with water temperatures offshore of Southern California and Baja. As we saw last summer, we were just in the developing stages of La Nina and water temps were about as chilly as they ever get during the summer. That really had more to do with coastal upwelling (wind) than La Nina or El Nino. In certain years when El Nino is present in the Pacific and currents/storms are favorable, that excess heat energy can be transported closer to home, producing warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off Southern California. Many times during El Nino periods, the semi-permanent Pacific high is much weaker, producing weaker offshore winds, somewhat limiting coastal upwelling. I also believe a side effect of El Nino is a weaker south-flowing California current, allowing warmer water from southerly latitudes to move up the line.
In summary, this is from the December 13 ENSO weekly update from the Climate Prediction Center:
La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific, negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean, and La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.
No predictions about how the fishing will be... but after last year it couldn't be much worse. Let's hope for the financial well-being of the sportboat operators in the fleet that 2011 turns out to be a banner year!
Personally, I think that really played havoc with the migration routes and feeding habits of the migratory tuna that visit our waters each spring, summer and fall. My thought is that if you totally mess up the water structure (thermocline, temperature breaks) then that will likely have an impact on the rest of the ecosystem. That could be why our offshore season was so unreliable and even when we did find a large volume of fish they were skittish and didn't seem interested in trolled jigs or sardines.
At any rate, this "cold phase ENSO" as it is called is expected to persist through the spring 2011. Not to worry! We have still experienced fantastic offshore fishing during La Nina! From previous episodes of similar strength we can draw conclusions about the impact on west coast weather, such as Southern California and Northern Baja tend to be drier and warmer compared to the long-term average. That doesn't mean we won't see any rain this winter, but there is a better chance that rainfall will come up short of the long-term average.
As for the impact on our fishery...the cold water anomoly is measured along the equator and doesn't necessarily have a direct correlation with water temperatures offshore of Southern California and Baja. As we saw last summer, we were just in the developing stages of La Nina and water temps were about as chilly as they ever get during the summer. That really had more to do with coastal upwelling (wind) than La Nina or El Nino. In certain years when El Nino is present in the Pacific and currents/storms are favorable, that excess heat energy can be transported closer to home, producing warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off Southern California. Many times during El Nino periods, the semi-permanent Pacific high is much weaker, producing weaker offshore winds, somewhat limiting coastal upwelling. I also believe a side effect of El Nino is a weaker south-flowing California current, allowing warmer water from southerly latitudes to move up the line.
In summary, this is from the December 13 ENSO weekly update from the Climate Prediction Center:
La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific, negative sea surface temperature anomalies persist across much of the Pacific Ocean, and La Niña is expected to last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.
No predictions about how the fishing will be... but after last year it couldn't be much worse. Let's hope for the financial well-being of the sportboat operators in the fleet that 2011 turns out to be a banner year!
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